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About Us

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Old joke about stock brokerage firm research:
“I use them EVERY day: the only drawback is they do not flush well.”

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Our Story

About What We Do & How We Got Here

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Before the Editors of Up Trend Down Trend (UD) developed this propriety predictive analysis to identify the trend of publicly-traded security:We, like everyone else, were at the mercy of news headlines whipping around stock prices, stop or limit orders getting hit before the trend had actually changed, and research reports or annual reports that were as useless as a screen door in a submarine.

Then many many many years ago, through a combination of hard work, critical observation, trial and error, backtesting, etc., and spreadsheets that used floppy drives (Ok we just dated ourselves) we were able to identify mathematical characteristics the did an excellent job of identifying when a change in trend was occurring.

A change in Trend is an Actionable event upon which, depending on your personal risk profile and investment strategy, you use the change in trend to your benefit.

Simply put, TREND identifies itself because of the part of “efficient market theory”. . . UD believes, that ALL information, especially information you do not know and could not possibly know is ultimately represented in the price per share and the volume of shares traded.“

Price Change X Volume = MONEY – that is either buying or selling said shares.

The part of the efficient market theory we will respectfully disagree with is,.  to paraphrase : Therefore, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing.

If timing did not work, then there would be no market as buyers and sellers would rarely trade their shares. Even those who are die-hard “portfolio allocation” nerds can never really answer the question “When and Why do you reallocate? Never? Sometimes? Monthly? Quarterly? Ultimately, they are timing. They are just too obstinate to admit it.

Even pure fundamental investors need to “time” when to exit or enter an investment: Sears, Kmart, Toys R Us, examples of large previously considered Blue Chip companies that investors had to decide to buy/hold/ or sell. Or on the other side Nvidia or Apple or Microsoft, Google, Amazon: A decision had to be made at some point in TIME to buy or sell and in what quantity or percent of a portfolio.

Bottom Line: The only thing that matters more than the direction of the trend is whether that trend benefits your particular investment strategy.

Up is great, we are all geniuses when markets rise, it is the downside that can crush people: Why? Because we do not care how far “UP” is: However, we REALLY care how far “DOWN” is!  And do we really know how far down is? The short answer is NO: The other part of the answer is that unless you are an investor who takes the short side of markets, down is bad.

Clichés like:
“The numbers don’t lie”
“Because there were more buyers than sellers” (sellers than buyers)
are clichés because they are true!

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Request Analysis

To request an analysis on any of the symbols listed here, or request a symbol not shown here. Symbol must represent a security traded on the NYSE or NASDAQ. Include the name of the company with your request.

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